Political affairs analyst Majeed Dahiru has warned that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is facing what he calls a “deep existential crisis,” attributing the turmoil to the party’s failure to zone its 2023 presidential ticket to the South, particularly the South-East.
Dahiru described the decision as a “mortal sin” that has weakened the PDP’s cohesion and triggered a wave of defections, the latest being that of Governor Peter Mbah of Enugu State, who on Tuesday formally joined the All Progressives Congress (APC).
At a press conference in Enugu, Mbah said his defection was driven by “the need to advance the state’s interests” and his belief that the APC platform offered greater opportunities for partnership and development.
Shortly after Mbah’s move, three PDP lawmakers from Kaduna State — Abdulkarim Ahmed (Kaduna South), Aliyu Mustapha (Ikara/Kubau), and Sadiq Ango-Abdullahi (Sabongari) — also defected to the ruling party. Their letters of resignation, citing “lingering internal conflicts” and the desire to align with President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, were read by Speaker Tajudeen Abbas during plenary.
Speaking on ARISE News Night, Dahiru said Mbah’s defection reflected deeper cracks within the opposition party.
“Before he spoke of aligning with the centre, Governor Mbah made a profound point: the South-East, and Enugu State in particular, have been loyal to the PDP since 1998. Yet the party took that loyalty for granted. That is the real driver of these defections,” Dahiru stated.
He argued that while some politicians may switch allegiance for access to power, the root cause lies in the PDP’s disregard for zoning and regional equity.
“In 2022, I warned that ignoring zoning to the South would sink the party after Buhari. That warning has come true,” he said.
Dahiru blamed the party’s leadership crises, internal lawsuits, and dwindling grassroots presence on what he called the “alienation of the South-East — the PDP’s traditional oxygen.”
He recalled that when 17 Southern governors met in Asaba to demand a power shift, “common sense dictated the PDP should have produced a candidate from the South-East while the APC took the South-West.”
According to him, the PDP also missed an opportunity to rebuild its national relevance through Peter Obi, whose candidacy in the 2023 election “could have united the South and attracted broad national support.”
“Peter Obi was phenomenally popular and from the right region. But the PDP lost that chance — and with it, the South-East,” Dahiru lamented.
He noted the party’s weakening presence in its former strongholds, citing Anambra State, where no aspirant obtained forms for the forthcoming governorship primaries.
The analyst also linked the PDP’s continued instability to the defection of key figures and the lingering influence of Nyesom Wike, now serving in the APC-led federal government.
On the broader political landscape, Dahiru said defections between the PDP and APC carried “little ideological meaning,” but warned that movements away from the Labour Party (LP) were more damaging.
“If there’s any party Nigerians should worry about losing members from, it’s the Labour Party. It was built through genuine grassroots mobilisation. When elected officials leave, they betray that movement,” he said.
Dahiru concluded that Nigeria missed a rare democratic turning point after 2023.
“The people sacrificed to build a new political movement, but those who rose through it are now behaving like the establishment they vowed to replace,” he added.
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