The National Orientation Agency (NOA) has said Nigeria’s debt burden has “significantly decreased” since President Bola Tinubu assumed office in 2023, dismissing public claims suggesting otherwise.
The agency stated this in an explainer released on Monday via its official X (formerly Twitter) handle, citing verified data from the Debt Management Office (DMO), the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the Federal Ministry of Finance, and the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS).
Contrasting Figures and Clarifications
This comes amid concerns raised following a recent report by the DMO, which revealed that Nigeria’s total public debt stock stood at ₦152.40 trillion (about $99.66 billion) as of June 30, 2025. The figure represents a 2.01 percent increase — or ₦3.01 trillion — from ₦149.39 trillion recorded in March 2025.
In dollar terms, the debt grew from $97.24 billion to $99.66 billion, marking a 2.49 percent quarterly increase.
The DMO explained that Nigeria’s external debt rose to $46.98 billion in June 2025 from $45.98 billion in March, reflecting additional drawdowns on existing multilateral and bilateral facilities.
However, the NOA said public discussions have misinterpreted these figures, adding that the real debt burden — when measured by debt-to-GDP ratio and repayment trends — has reduced under the current administration.
According to the agency, Nigeria’s total public debt stood at $113.42 billion in June 2023, with a debt-to-GDP ratio below 40 percent, a level the IMF and World Bank consider sustainable.
It explained that by December 2024, the figure had dropped to approximately $94.22 billion, representing a reduction of over $19 billion in 18 months.
“The reduction in Nigeria’s debt shows that the federal government is actively managing its borrowings and repayments.
Instead of accumulating more debt, Nigeria has been making down payments of some of its loans and avoiding unnecessary new borrowings. This is a positive sign of fiscal responsibility,” the statement read.
Debt Servicing and Fiscal Efficiency
The agency further highlighted improvements in debt servicing ratios, noting that before Tinubu’s administration, debt service consumed nearly all federal revenue.
It said, “In the first half of 2023, about 97 percent of total revenue was spent on debt servicing.
By the end of 2024, this had improved to 68 percent, and by the second quarter of 2025, it dropped to below 50 percent.
“While the ratio is still high, it reflects significant fiscal improvement driven by stronger revenue mobilisation and better expenditure control.”
The NOA also disclosed that the federal government repaid a $3.26 billion IMF loan within two years and spent about $7 billion on external debt servicing during the first 18 months of the Tinubu presidency — signalling an active repayment strategy rather than debt accumulation.
Revenue Growth and Economic Diversification
The agency attributed the improvement to rising non-oil revenue, enhanced customs collections, and ongoing anti-leakage reforms.
“In the first half of 2024, non-oil revenue increased by 30 percent compared to the same period in 2023.
The Nigeria Customs Service collected ₦1.3 trillion in the first quarter of 2025, more than double the ₦600 billion recorded in Q1 2023,” it stated.
The NOA added that the Tinubu administration’s fiscal discipline and drive toward economic diversification were yielding measurable results. It cited World Bank projections placing Nigeria’s GDP growth at 3.7 percent in 2024 — the strongest pace in nearly a decade, excluding post-pandemic rebounds.
Sustainability Outlook
While acknowledging that Nigeria’s debt remains “manageable but not risk-free,” the agency said ongoing reforms in agriculture, telecommunications, services, and digital innovation were critical to achieving long-term sustainability.
It also reaffirmed the government’s commitment to infrastructure investment, agricultural support, and small business development, aimed at reducing the economy’s dependence on oil revenues.
“The Tinubu administration’s fiscal and structural reforms demonstrate a clear intention to stabilise the economy, broaden the revenue base, and ensure that future borrowing is both responsible and productive,” the NOA concluded.
World Bank remains Nigeria’s top creditor as debt hits N152.4tn — DMO
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