Not Our Reality’: Tinubu Administration Pushes Back as World Bank Flags 139m Nigerians in Poverty

Presidency Faults Methodology

According to the Presidency, the World Bank’s estimate was derived from the global poverty line of $2.15 per person per day, set in 2017 using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). It explained that the model is a theoretical construct rather than an actual count of Nigerians living below the poverty threshold.

The statement noted that converting the $2.15 benchmark into nominal terms amounts to roughly ₦100,000 per month at current exchange rates — far above Nigeria’s new minimum wage of ₦70,000.

“There must be caution against interpreting the World Bank’s numbers as a literal, real-time headcount,” it said. “Poverty assessments under PPP use historical data and often overlook informal and subsistence economies that sustain millions of Nigerians.”

The government maintained that Nigeria’s poverty trajectory is “now one of recovery and inclusive reform,” citing improvements in key economic indicators since Tinubu’s reforms began in 2023.

Government Lists Welfare and Reform Measures

The Presidency highlighted several social and economic initiatives aimed at alleviating poverty, including:

Conditional Cash Transfers to over 15 million households, with more than ₦297 billion disbursed since 2023.
The Renewed Hope Ward Development Programme, targeting all 8,809 electoral wards with community-level infrastructure and livelihoods support.
Expanded National Social Investment Programmes (NSIP) — including N-Power, GEEP micro-loans, and Home-Grown School Feeding.
Food Security Initiatives involving grain and fertiliser distribution, mechanisation partnerships, and revival of strategic food reserves.
The Renewed Hope Infrastructure Fund to finance energy, road, and housing projects that reduce living costs.
The National Credit Guarantee Company, designed to expand affordable loans for small businesses, women, and youth entrepreneurs.

Dare said these measures were addressing “structural distortions” that have hindered productivity and inclusive growth for decades.

“Even the World Bank itself has acknowledged that these reforms are already restoring macroeconomic stability and growth momentum,” he added.

Tinubu’s Reforms ‘Painful but Necessary’

The Presidency defended the administration’s controversial policies — including the fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate unification — as “painful but necessary choices” to fix the root causes of poverty rather than its symptoms.

It said the government’s priority in the medium term is to ensure macroeconomic stability translates into affordable food, quality jobs, and reliable infrastructure, while pledging to consolidate all social protection programmes into a unified, data-driven framework for transparency.

“Nigerians should begin to feel visible improvements in food prices, income, and purchasing power as these programmes mature,” the statement said.

“Nigeria rejects exaggerated statistical interpretations detached from local realities. The government remains focused on empowering households, expanding opportunity, and laying the foundation for a fairer, more prosperous nation.”

World Bank Warns Poverty Deepening Despite Reforms

Earlier on Wednesday, the World Bank raised alarm over worsening poverty levels in Nigeria despite recent macroeconomic gains, warning that the country risked losing hard-won reform momentum if improvements did not translate to better living conditions.

Presenting the October 2025 Nigeria Development Update titled “From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home,” the World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Mathew Verghis, said about 139 million Nigerians now live in poverty — a sharp increase from 129 million in April 2025 and 87 million in 2023.

Verghis commended Nigeria’s reforms in the foreign exchange and petroleum subsidy regimes, describing them as “foundational steps” toward long-term economic transformation, but cautioned that inflation and currency depreciation had eroded purchasing power.

“These are big achievements, and many countries would envy them. But despite stabilisation gains, many households are still struggling with eroded purchasing power,” he said.

Mixed Reactions from Opposition and Experts

Opposition parties, labour unions, and economists offered mixed reactions to the dispute, with some supporting the World Bank’s assessment and others urging patience as reforms take effect.

The Labour Party’s Interim National Publicity Secretary, Tony Akeni, said the figures “reflect the grim realities of life in Nigeria.”

“While the President talks about growth and reduced inflation, these are only figures on paper. They haven’t translated into any advantage for the ordinary Nigerian,” he said.

Similarly, NNPP spokesman Ladipo Johnson accused the government of “worsening the debt crisis” and failing to cushion the impact of reforms, while PDP youth leader Timothy Osadolor said hunger and hardship were evident across the country.

Leaders of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) also rejected official assurances of progress, saying workers could barely survive on the ₦70,000 minimum wage, which they said “barely covers the cost of a bag of rice.”

Economists including Muda Yusuf, Prof. Akpan Ekpo, and Teslim Shitta-Bey acknowledged that reforms were essential but urged government to complement them with direct welfare and job-creation policies.

“The process of fixing what’s broken has aggravated poverty,” said Yusuf. “Now is the time to focus on reducing the cost of living through agriculture, infrastructure, and energy.”

A Nation at a Crossroads

While the Presidency insists Nigeria’s economy is on a path of recovery, the World Bank and local analysts agree that translating reforms into tangible welfare gains remains the real test for the Tinubu administration.

As one economist put it, “Stability without prosperity is not sustainable. Nigerians need to feel the reforms in their pockets.”