Nigerian Oil & Gas Index Surges Over 5% in Early October, Nearing 2,700-Point Resistance

Sector Regains Momentum After Early-Year Slump

The index posted a 4.7% recovery in June, partially offsetting prior losses but still finishing the second quarter down 0.86% overall.

However, sentiment began to shift in the third quarter of 2025, with renewed buying interest lifting the sector by 3.51%. That upward momentum has now carried into October, marking a promising start to the final quarter of the year.

Analysts attribute the renewed interest to improved oil production metrics, stronger earnings reports, and positive macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria’s energy sector.

Aradel’s Strong Quarter Anchors Market Recovery

Aradel Holdings has been a key driver of the index’s resurgence. The stock gained 19.53% in the third quarter, rising from ₦514.5 at the start of July to close at ₦615 by the end of September, with a trading volume of 195.7 million shares.

A sharp 20.59% rally in September accounted for most of the quarter’s gains, helping to offset earlier declines.

Given Aradel’s 37% weighting in the NGX Oil & Gas Index and a market capitalization of ₦2.7 trillion, its price movement played a pivotal role in pushing the index up by 3.51% in Q3.

September also marked the index’s strongest monthly performance of the quarter, closing up 5.94%, led almost entirely by Aradel’s surge.

Eterna and Seplat Join the October Upswing

The bullish momentum has extended into October, supported by Eterna and Seplat Energy, which have both posted notable early-month gains.

Eterna Plc has led the rally, soaring 23% to ₦41.50. Analysts note that the stock could retest its April 2025 high of ₦49.95 if the current momentum continues.
Seplat Energy Plc, one of the index’s heaviest components, has advanced 10%, crossing a resistance level at ₦5,600 to trade around ₦5,917. With a 48% weighting in the index and a ₦3.5 trillion market cap, Seplat’s movement has provided significant upward pressure on the overall index.
Aradel Holdings has added a modest 2.41% in early October, consolidating its previous gains and maintaining strength above ₦600 per share.

Oil Output and Drilling Activity Support Market Sentiment

Underlying fundamentals also appear to be improving. Between January and July 2025, Nigeria’s crude oil output averaged between 1.7 million and 1.83 million barrels per day, according to Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil).

The country’s active rig count rose from 31 to 50 during the same period, signaling a stronger operational base for upstream producers.

Analysts suggest these improvements in production and infrastructure stability are contributing to investor confidence and renewed interest in energy stocks listed on the Nigerian Exchange.

Outlook: Can the Index Break 2,700?

With bullish momentum persisting, traders are closely watching whether the NGX Oil/Gas Index can sustain its rally and break the 2,700-point resistance level — a psychological barrier last breached in late 2024.

If crude production continues to stabilize and corporate earnings remain solid, analysts expect further upside, particularly in Seplat, Aradel, and Eterna, which together dominate more than 85% of the sector’s weighting.

However, market watchers also caution that volatility could re-emerge if global crude prices pull back or if domestic operational bottlenecks return.

Key Highlights

NGX Oil & Gas Index up 5.6% in early October, now at 2,664 points.
Aradel, Seplat, and Eterna drive gains across the sector.
Aradel up 19.53% in Q3; Eterna up 23% in early October.
Nigeria’s oil production between 1.7–1.83 mbpd supports investor confidence.
Index may test 2,700 resistance level if bullish sentiment holds.