Political Earthquake Ahead of 2027 Elections
As the 2027 general elections draw nearer, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu appears to be consolidating political control across southern Nigeria, following a surge of defections from opposition governors and heavyweight politicians to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
The mass defections have triggered widespread concern among opposition leaders, who warn that Nigeria risks sliding into a de facto one-party state.
Defections Shake the Opposition
In just one week, two governors from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) resigned from their party posts.
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Governor Peter Mbah of Enugu State joined the APC on Tuesday, alongside his cabinet members.
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Barely 24 hours later, Bayelsa State Governor Douye Diri announced his resignation from the PDP, along with the Speaker of the House of Assembly, Abraham Ingobere, and 21 lawmakers.
The Bayelsa Government House later confirmed Diri’s resignation at an Executive Council meeting, though his next political destination was not immediately stated.
Senior APC officials told Emmynet24 news media that more southern governors—including Siminalayi Fubara (Rivers), Alex Otti (Abia), Caleb Mutfwang (Plateau), and Agbu Kefas (Taraba)—are in advanced talks to cross over.
“The APC is attracting them all,” a top party insider disclosed. “Discussions are ongoing with southern and northern governors. Some are only waiting for the right timing.”
APC Expands Its Southern Footprint
Currently, the APC controls 11 of the 17 southern states—including Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, Ondo, Edo, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Delta, Imo, Ebonyi, and Enugu.
The Labour Party governs Abia, APGA runs Anambra, while the PDP holds Oyo, Rivers, and Osun. Bayelsa’s status now remains politically fluid.
In the North, the APC maintains dominance in 13 of 19 states, while the PDP leads five and the NNPP controls Kano.
Opposition Leaders React: “Battle Line Drawn”
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, the 2023 Labour Party presidential candidate, condemned the defections as acts of political survival and personal gain, not ideology.
Atiku’s spokesperson, Paul Ibe, said the Tinubu-led APC had weaponised state institutions to “coerce and intimidate” opposition figures.
“The battle line has been drawn,” Atiku declared. “Nigerians who are suffering and impoverished will take their pound of flesh in 2027. These defectors have abandoned the people for their own interests.”
Obi also rejected claims that the South-East could be politically “captured.”
“Governors don’t decide elections—people do,” he said in Abuja. “We are not in a military era where you capture territory. Leadership in a democracy is about persuasion, not coercion.”
Wike Mocks Former Critics
Reacting to the defections, Federal Capital Territory Minister Nyesom Wike—himself a PDP member and longtime Tinubu ally—mocked those who once accused him of betraying the opposition.
Speaking at the flag-off of the Outer Southern Expressway in Abuja, Wike said:
“Those who said I was destabilising the PDP are now in the APC. They should commend me for doing a good job paving their way.”
He praised Tinubu’s “decisive leadership,” arguing that increased federal allocations had improved state finances nationwide.
Dickson Condemns Diri and Other Defectors
Former Bayelsa State Governor and current senator Seriake Dickson criticised Diri’s decision, calling it “political apostasy.”
“I don’t believe Nigeria should be a one-party state,” Dickson told journalists. “Those who created the PDP’s crisis are now fleeing instead of fixing it. It’s sad and belittles our democracy.”
He urged politicians to preserve Nigeria’s plural democratic system, warning that defecting governors were “abandoning their people, not out of conviction but cowardice.”
ADC and Civil Society Decry ‘One-Party Agenda’
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) joined in condemning the wave of defections, accusing President Tinubu of seeking to turn Nigeria into a one-party state.
In a statement signed by its National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, the ADC said the governors of Enugu and Bayelsa had “betrayed their citizens.”
“While it may look like the APC has gained ground, these governors have simply joined the party that has failed Nigerians on all fronts—security, economy, corruption, and welfare,” the statement read.
The ADC vowed to unite opposition forces ahead of 2027, saying, “The people are watching—and waiting.”
Enugu PDP Vows to Rebuild
In Enugu, local PDP leaders have pledged to rebuild the party after Governor Mbah’s defection.
Former State Youth Leader Dr Okey Ozoani urged loyal members to “remain resilient and calm,” insisting that “good things are coming.”
Another PDP stalwart, Nick Ozonsi, said the defections highlight Nigeria’s weak political ideology.
“If you cannot fix things in one party, how will you fix them in another?” he asked. “We need systemic political reform.”
Analyst Perspective
Political analysts say the ongoing defections could significantly reshape Nigeria’s political map before 2027.
While Tinubu’s growing dominance strengthens his reelection prospects, it also heightens fears of shrinking democratic competition.
Dr. Chika Eze, a political science lecturer at the University of Lagos, told Emmynet24 news media that:
“The risk of a one-party system undermines checks and balances. True democracy thrives on credible opposition, not uniformity.”
Conclusion
As Nigeria edges toward the 2027 polls, both ruling and opposition parties face a test of survival.
For the APC, consolidation of power could prove double-edged—boosting control but fuelling discontent.
For the PDP and Labour Party, unity and credibility will determine whether they can mount a meaningful challenge to President Tinubu’s political machinery.