Nigeria’s Inflation Eases to 18.02% in September — CPPE Warns Gains Yet to Impact Households

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Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 18.02% in September 2025, down from 20.12% recorded in August, according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The decline marks one of the most significant disinflation trends in recent months, largely driven by improved food supply during the harvest season and relative stability in the naira.

However, the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has warned that while the development is encouraging, most Nigerians are unlikely to feel immediate relief.

In a policy brief shared with Nairametrics on Wednesday, Dr. Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the CPPE, described the trend as a “welcome but modest improvement,” noting that inflation remains at a level that continues to undermine household welfare and business performance.

“While this disinflation trajectory is commendable, inflation levels remain high and continue to erode household purchasing power, undermine consumer confidence, and weaken real incomes,” Yusuf said.

“Business confidence is rising, but consumer confidence remains fragile. Policies that enhance productivity, stabilise prices, and reduce the structural cost of doing business will not only strengthen the disinflation trajectory but also foster inclusive and sustainable recovery,” he added.

Harvest Season, Stable Naira Drive Food Price Decline

According to the CPPE, the decline in food inflation was primarily due to increased agricultural output during the harvest season, coupled with improvements in exchange rate stability and tighter macroeconomic coordination.

Yusuf explained that the relative appreciation of the naira in some months, reduced fiscal leakages, and stronger coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities contributed to the easing of price pressures.

“These factors collectively explain the progress made on price moderation in September 2025,” he said.

“With consistency, coordination, and structural reforms, Nigeria can achieve a stable single-digit inflation rate over the medium term — anchoring growth, improving welfare, and restoring confidence in the economy.”

The CPPE also urged policymakers to consolidate recent gains through decisive and targeted interventions that promote productivity, curb inefficiencies, and maintain fiscal discipline.

Data Breakdown

According to the NBS, food inflation stood at 16.87% in September 2025, a sharp decline of 20.9 percentage points from 37.77% recorded in September 2024.

Similarly, core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural products and energy costs, fell to 19.53% year-on-year — down 7.9 percentage points from 27.43% in September 2024.